: Lessons for India from the Chinese epicentre of coronavirus epidemic #IndiaNEWS One of the first peer-reviewed studies on the impact of physical distancing on the spread of Covid-19 has used mathematical

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Lessons for India from the Chinese epicentre of coronavirus epidemic #IndiaNEWS
One of the first peer-reviewed studies on the impact of physical distancing on the spread of Covid-19 has used mathematical modelling to conclude that the measures delay the spread of the virus, defer and diminish peak infections, and shrink the total number of cases, but removing them too soon could lead to a second wave of infections.The results of the projections based on Wuhan, the Chinese city that was the epicentre of Covid-19, were published in the scientific journal Lancet on March 25. Wuhan imposed nine weeks of complete self-isolation starting January 23, which gradually reduced new infections to zero by March 18. Since March 23, restrictions have been eased, allowing people to leave their apartments in a phased manner.Based on data from Wuhan, mathematical modelling showed that physical distancing reduced the projected median number of infections in mid-2020 by more than 92% and for end-2020 by 24%, said the study. This means that 92% fewer cases would be seen by mid-2020 and 24% fewer by end-2020 than if the curbs had not been imposed.The study recommended keeping the curbs in Wuhan in place until April, instead of beginning to relax them as is being done, and then allow a staggered return to work with only 25% of employees...Read more

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