: Ukraine is Anticipating A New Russian Offensive. Here’s What to Know #WorldNEWS Russia’s dreaded winter offensive seems to have begun, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a Feb.

Ukraine is Anticipating A New Russian Offensive. Here’s What to Know #WorldNEWS
Russia’s dreaded winter offensive seems to have begun, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a Feb. 13 press conference. According to western and Ukrainian officials, Russia is introducing new troops to the battlefield and redoubling or launching new offenses in eastern Ukraine, including around the towns of Kreminna, Vuhledar, and Bakhmut.
Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov warned that Russia will accelerate its attacks to mark the Feb. 24 anniversary of the Russian invasion, and has massed hundreds of thousands of troops to prepare for the assault. The Defense Ministry said on Feb. 14 that the Russian offensive has two main goals: capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

But even with these new efforts, it’s unclear whether Russia will be able to conquer more of Ukraine within the next few weeks—let alone turn the tide of the war.
What could happen next?

Vadim Ghirda—APNatalya, the wife of Hennadii Kovshyk, who was killed on the frontline in eastern Ukraine, touches his face during a religious funeral service in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 16.
There are two major reasons to suspect that fighting will pick up in the next two weeks, says Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the D. C. -based Institute for the Study of War. First, Russia may be in a hurry to build the attack before the muddy season of spring, which makes it difficult for troops and equipment to pass through the terrain. Second, the upcoming anniversary of the invasion means Russia may want to have a symbolic “victory” to show its people.
Estimates about how many Russian troops are currently in Ukraine vary, although Reznikov said on Feb. 1 that about 500,000 Russian troops have been mobilized for the offensive. At least three major Russian divisions are now on the offensive in Ukraine, says Stepanenko. The U. S. has estimated that 80% of Russian ground troops are involved in Ukraine, while British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has said that about 97% of the Russian Army is in Ukraine.
However, Russia still seems to be holding back forces, says Philip Wasielewski, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institutes Eurasia program. “They have spare capability. And I dont think weve seen the biggest push yet,” he said.
Can Russias offensive succeed?

John Moore—Getty ImagesA local resident carries humanitarian aid while walking through a nearly deserted downtown area on Feb. 14 in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
Russia likely doesn’t have enough time to accomplish its short-term goal of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk, says Stepanenko. Spring is fast approaching, which in Ukraine is known as the “bezdorizhzhia,” or “roadless” season, because the country becomes very muddy.