: Does the Covid-19 pandemic meet the three-level check to be termed a black swan event? #IndiaNEWS Since the “black swan� metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable

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Does the Covid-19 pandemic meet the three-level check to be termed a black swan event? #IndiaNEWS
Since the “black swan� metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable to label virtually all low-probability/high-impact events black swans.But the danger of making an occurrence like the Covid-19 outbreak appear to be astronomically rare is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. What’s more, those accountable for this preparation will dismiss their blatant failures because of the perceived exceptional nature of the event.As managing director of the oldest university-based disaster risk reduction research institute in Canada, and with almost 30 years of researching and writing about disaster risk management, I know this all too well. When you make an event seem exceptional when it really isn’t, it will be used as a crutch by those who failed to prepare in the face of the known risk.What is a black swan?In The Black Swan, written by professor, statistician and former options trader Nassim Taleb, the author explains how an event can come to be named a black swan:“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme “impact.� Third, in spite of its outlier...Read more

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